NL $100- J-J overpair hand

[dsepe]

anything else I can do here? 100 BB deep is 3 betting and getting it in on the flop an option? there is no flush draw so if we get it in on the flop I feel like I'm pretty much never ahead..

can I find a call on the river? does anyone fire another huge bet on the river here with A-10?

his hand just screamed of a set.. any thoughts?


FullTiltPoker Game #2440182666: Table Radwick (6 max) - $0.50/$1 - No Limit Hold'em - 18:18:57 ET - 2007/05/16
Seat 1: Colonel Mustard ($261.30), is sitting out
Seat 2: IRunSoGood ($202.20)
Seat 3: CS_Sitz ($190.50)
Seat 4: KickingTheTV ($157.45)
Seat 5: mownutz ($103.50)
Seat 6: Young149 ($0), is sitting out
IRunSoGood posts the small blind of $0.50
CS_Sitz posts the big blind of $1
The button is in seat #6
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to mownutz [Jh Jc]
KickingTheTV folds
mownutz raises to $3.50
IRunSoGood folds
CS_Sitz calls $2.50
*** FLOP *** [5d Th 9c]
CS_Sitz checks
mownutz bets $5
CS_Sitz raises to $16
mownutz calls $11
*** TURN *** [5d Th 9c] [6h]
CS_Sitz bets $20
mownutz calls $20
*** RIVER *** [5d Th 9c 6h] [2d]
CS_Sitz has 15 seconds left to act
CS_Sitz bets $50
mownutz has 15 seconds left to act
mownutz folds
Uncalled bet of $50 returned to CS_Sitz
CS_Sitz mucks
CS_Sitz wins the pot ($77.50)
*** SUMMARY ***
Total pot $79.50 | Rake $2
Board: [5d Th 9c 6h 2d]
Seat 1: Colonel Mustard is sitting out
Seat 2: IRunSoGood (small blind) folded before the Flop
Seat 3: CS_Sitz (big blind) collected ($77.50), mucked
Seat 4: KickingTheTV didn't bet (folded)
Seat 5: mownutz folded on the River
Seat 6: Young149 (button) is sitting out

[woguy213]

is the villain a loose/aggressive player? If so, then I think I'd pay him off. If he's been tight, then you can fold. I don't see myself folding that hand against a loose/aggressive player though. He could easily have a-10 or k-10.

[rpapp]

let's try and answer this with some math. you have to pay $50 to win (7+32+40+50) ~130. so you need to win better than 2.6:1 or 50/(50+130) = 27% of the time.
now let's count some hand combinations. What can he have that beats you and how many combinations of each are there. TT, 3 combs (TcTd, TcTs, TdTs), 99(3), 55(3), T9 (9) for a total of 18 combinations that beat you. That means that he has to bet only 7 combinations you beat to make a call correct (7 since you need better than 2.6:1 you just divide 18/2.6) . There are 8 combinations of QJ (normally it's 16 combos but you have 2 Jacks). but let's say there is only a 50% chance he plays QJ that way so that's 4 combos. There are 12 combinations of AT so if there is a 25% chance he plays AT this way then 25%*12 combos = 3 combos. Add that to the 4 for QJ and that's your 7 combos you need for a call.
While a good player who knows you are good will not bet an AT on this river figuring there is no hand you call he beats and would check call to try and get you to bet a missed QJ, he might not be a thinking player, love his AT and figure he is getting value from JT,QT, and KT. Throw in a few other hands he could bet this way like 7h8h and i think you gotta pay off on this river.
of course no one thinks through this stuff at the table but going over it away from the table will make you familar with situations like this next time they come up.

[Leatherass]

Welcome to the forums rpapp. You seem like a good solid thinking player :). I think your analysis is great but what do you think of the way he played the hand given that he has a relatively solid image at the table? Do you go into check/call mode in this situation or do you 3 bet the flop or c/r at some point in the hand?

[rpapp]

well, given that you are in position, CRing at some point could be tricky. I've seen it done though.

Here's the problem. Showing more strength on the flop gives him the information to get away from his hand when he's behind, and your chips when he's ahead.
However, by not showing strength he may continue to bet his TP strong and get you off the best hand because you can't tell the difference between the way he bets TP or a set.
Either way, you cant fold and raising is bad so you have to call the flop. On to the turn.

On the turn you have a decision. With the set or 2p he's firing again. With the draw or TP he may check. Hoping for a free card with the draw or reevaluating with the top pair since you called.
But he could also bet both of those hands. For value and to charge the QJ type hands when he has AT, and as a semi bluff with a draw.
Let's look at shoving the turn and once again its math time.

let's say he calls with the set/2p hands and folds the others. we said there are 18 combos of set/29 and let's say he'll bet the TP and draws half the time for (AT=12 + QJ=6 + 6 random combs (78 etc, total = 24 divided by 2 is) 12 combos. so of the 30 hands has he folds 12 times and calls 18 times. when he folds you win (7+32+20=) 59. 59*(12/30) = $23. Using Pokerstove, JJ has an equity of 10.5% agains a set and T9. so 89.5% of the time you lose $83 and 10.5% of the time you win 122 for an ev of -$62*(18/30) = -$37. so it seems that shoving is -ev by $14 (if all my assumptions are correct). So since you can't fold (you could easily still be ahead) and can't shove, you have to call. On to the river.

River: see my first post.